Driverless industry press is still misreading the root cause of the industry’s collapse
Here are a couple sample articles
· The autonomous vehicle world is shrinking — it’s overdue https://www.theverge.com/22423489/autonomous-vehicle-consolidation-acquisition-lyft-uber
· In a year of major shifts, the self-driving car market is consolidating https://venturebeat.com/2021/05/02/in-a-year-of-major-shifts-the-self-driving-car-market-is-consolidating/
· Why hasn’t Waymo expanded its driverless service? Here’s my theory https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/05/why-hasnt-waymo-expanded-its-driverless-service-heres-my-theory/
Yes, the cost of sensors, the difficulties of machine learning, public perception are all issues. However, they are ALL solved by producing legitimate L4 vehicles en masse. How is that done? By solving the actual root cause. The development and test method being used by the industry.
It is a myth that public shadow and safety driving can create a legitimate autonomous vehicle. And the lives the process takes are necessary and for the greater good. It is impossible to drive the trillion miles or spend $300B to stumble and restumble on all the scenarios necessary to complete the effort. The process also harms people for no reason. The first safety issue is handover. The time to regain proper situational awareness and do the right thing, especially in time critical scenarios. cannot be provided. Another dangerous area is learning accident scenarios. AV makers will have to run thousands of accident scenarios thousands of times to accomplish this. That will cause thousands of injuries and deaths. The next issues is the use of gaming based simulation technology which has too many technical limitations to facilitate the creation of a legitimate real-world digital twin.
Of course, this is all easily resolved
And I have been saying all of this for four years
More here
The Autonomous Vehicle Industry can be Saved by doing the Opposite of what is being done now
Autonomous Vehicle Industry’s Self-Inflicted and Avoidable Collapse — Ongoing Update
SAE Autonomous Vehicle Engineering Magazine — Simulation’s Next Generation
· https://www.sae.org/news/2020/08/new-gen-av-simulation
The Crash of the Autonomous Vehicle Industry
· https://medium.com/predict/the-crash-of-the-autonomous-vehicle-industry-f71fd26c1ed0
My name is Michael DeKort — I am a former system engineer, engineering and program manager for Lockheed Martin. I worked in aircraft simulation, the software engineering manager for all of NORAD, the Aegis Weapon System, and on C4ISR for DHS.
Industry Participation — Air and Ground
- Founder SAE On-Road Autonomous Driving Simulation Task Force
- Member SAE ORAD Verification and Validation Task Force
- Member UNECE WP.29 SG2 Virtual Testing
- Stakeholder USDOT VOICES (Virtual Open Innovation Collaborative Environment for Safety)
- Member SAE G-34 / EUROCAE WG-114 Artificial Intelligence in Aviation
- Member CIVATAglobal — Civic Air Transport Association
- Stakeholder for UL4600 — Creating AV Safety Guidelines
- Member of the IEEE Artificial Intelligence & Autonomous Systems Policy Committee
- Presented the IEEE Barus Ethics Award for Post 9/11 DoD/DHS Whistleblowing Efforts
My company is Dactle
We are building an aerospace/DoD/FAA level D, full L4/5 simulation-based testing and AI system with an end-state scenario matrix to address several of the critical issues in the AV/OEM industry I mentioned in my articles below. This includes replacing 99.9% of public shadow and safety driving. As well as dealing with significant real-time, model fidelity and loading/scaling issues caused by using gaming engines and other architectures. (Issues Unity will confirm. We are now working together. We are also working with UAV companies). If not remedied these issues will lead to false confidence and performance differences between what the Plan believes will happen and what actually happens. If someone would like to see a demo or discuss this further please let me know.
