Elon Musk appears to understand his “only path to success” to driverless vehicle development is untenable
Reference article — Elon Musk Sheds Light On Tesla’s “Only Path” To Full Self Driving https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/17/elon-musk-sheds-light-on-teslas-only-path-to-full-self-driving/
Note — Johnna Crider, the author, blocks me. She did this, like most people do, because I tried to have a discussion with here in the technical weeds and she had no response.
First, it may very well take “NN inference acceleration ASICs in car, multibillion dollar NN training supercluster and 10+ billion miles of vehicle data”. The problem
General and deep learning are nowhere near where they need to be to infer well enough for the miles required to accomplish this to be ONLY 10+ billion miles. Rand states it’s 500B and Toyota a trillion. And Elon never mentions the thousands of needless human Guinea pig deaths REQUIRED along the way so many crash scenarios can be experienced over and over to be learned. That brings me to the next issue. Using the real-world, even if general and deep learning get to where they need to be. There is still simply far too much work to do to afford it in time, money, or lives. The next issue is simulation technology. Once you move over 99% of that real-world use over to simulation, it must be the proper technology to ensure the models have the high enough fidelity, especially sensors, and it can operate at sub-16ms real-time in the most complex scenarios. Gaming simulation technology cannot do this. The final issue is Tesla’s woefully incompetent camera only sensor system. What is needed, given the current state of sensor technology, is cameras, with IR, LiDAR that creates tracks and helps with classification, and imaging radar that also assists with classification. (As well as an aural system to determine position of things like sirens.)
Having said all of this, Elon appears to understand at least parts of the problem and that it is untenable when he says “good luck” at the end of his tweet?
More on my POV here. Including how to do this right.
SAE Autonomous Vehicle Engineering magazine editor calling me “prescient” regarding my position on Tesla and the overall driverless vehicle industry’s untenable development and testing approach — (Page 2) https://assets.techbriefs.com/EML/2021/digital_editions/ave/AVE-202109.pdf
Tesla “autopilot” development effort needs to be stopped and people held accountable
Tesla, not the “safety driver”, should likely be charged in the first “Full Self Driving” manslaughter case
Tesla “Autopilot” “Safety Score” is Creating Better Kamikaze Drivers
NHTSA should impose an immediate “Autopilot” moratorium and report initial investigation findings in 30 days
The Autonomous Vehicle Industry can be Saved by doing the Opposite of what is being done now to create this technology
How the failed Iranian hostage rescue in 1980 can save the Autonomous Vehicle industry
My name is Michael DeKort — I am a former system engineer, engineering, and program manager for Lockheed Martin. I worked in aircraft simulation, the software engineering manager for all of NORAD, a software project manager on an Aegis Weapon System baseline, and on C4ISR for DoD/DHS
Industry Participation — Air and Ground
- Founder SAE On-Road Autonomous Driving Simulation Task Force
- Member SAE ORAD Verification and Validation Task Force
- Member UNECE WP.29 SG2 Virtual Testing
- Stakeholder USDOT VOICES (Virtual Open Innovation Collaborative Environment for Safety)
- Member SAE G-35, Modeling, Simulation, Training for Emerging AV Tech
- Member SAE G-34 / EUROCAE WG-114 Artificial Intelligence in Aviation
- Member Teleoperation Consortium
- Member CIVATAglobal — Civic Air Transport Association
- Stakeholder for UL4600 — Creating AV Safety Guidelines
- Member of the IEEE Artificial Intelligence & Autonomous Systems Policy Committee
SAE Autonomous Vehicle Engineering magazine editor calling me “prescient” regarding my position on Tesla and the overall driverless vehicle industry’s untenable development and testing approach — (Page 2) https://assets.techbriefs.com/EML/2021/digital_editions/ave/AVE-202109.pdf
Presented the IEEE Barus Ethics Award for Post 9/11 DoD/DHS Whistleblowing Efforts
