Reports today are that Apple scooped up Drive.ai hours before it was to shutter. The price paid was less than the VC’s invested and most of the staff was let go.
Just last week we saw another consolidation. Waymo with Renault-Nissan. These are symptoms of the end of this industry if these companies do not switch 99.9% of their public shadow and safety driving for development and testing to proper simulation. You could literally pull EVERY AV maker into one company and they would still get nowhere near L4 and go bankrupt.
It is impossible to drive the one trillion miles or spend over $300B to stumble and restumble on all the scenarios necessary to complete the effort. In addition, the process harms people for no reason. This occurs two ways. The first is through handover or fall back. A process that cannot be made safe for most complex scenarios, by any monitoring and notification system, because they cannot provide the time to regain proper situational awareness and do the right thing the right way, especially in time critical scenarios. The other dangerous area is training the systems to handle accident scenarios. In order do that AV makers will have to run thousands of accident scenarios thousands of times. that will cause thousands of injuries and deaths.
The remedy is to use aerospace/DoD/FAA simulation technology and systems/safety engineering. Including augmenting that bottoms up Agile approach with a parallel top down approach.
(With regard to gaming engines. The real-time and model fidelity issues those systems cause especially in complex scenarios will cause differences between what the Planning system believes will occur and what will actually occur in analogous real-world scenarios. That will provide significant false confidence and lead to tragedies.)
Please find more information in my articles below.
All the Autonomous Vehicle makers combined would not get remotely close to L4
Using the Real World is better than Proper Simulation for Autonomous Vehicle Development — NONSENSE
- SAE Autonomous Vehicle Engineering Magazine-End Public Shadow Driving
Common Misconceptions about Aerospace/DoD/FAA Simulation for Autonomous Vehicles
The Hype of Geofencing for Autonomous Vehicles
My name is Michael DeKort — I am a former system engineer, engineering and program manager for Lockheed Martin. I worked in aircraft simulation, the software engineering manager for all of NORAD, the Aegis Weapon System, and on C4ISR for DHS.
I am a member of the SAE On-Road Autonomous Driving Validation & Verification Task Force and was recently asked by SAE to lead an effort to establish a new Modeling and Simulation Task Force
I am a stakeholder for UL4600 — Creating AV Safety Guidelines.
I have also been presented the IEEE Barus Ethics Award and am on the IEEE Artificial Intelligence & Autonomous Systems Policy Committee (AI&ASPC)
My company is Dactle