Well done. But I will suggest that it may never be done.
That 30 years assumes the current approach most if not all companies are using to create this technology. That being the use of public shadow driving for AI, engineering and test. RAND has stated it will take ONE TRILLION MILES to do that. Toyota agrees. My conservative math says that’s over $300B. As RAND says — it cannot be done.
Now factor in what will happen when that first child or family dies needlessly. See these folks think those tragedies are a necessary evil so there are few later. As these developers move from the overly hyped benign scenarios they drive now to those that are complex and dangerous , especially accident scenarios, things will change. When the public, press, lawmakers and lawyers figure this out and that they have to run thousands of these scenarios thousands of times and cause thousands of accidents, injuries and deaths a massive brick wall will go up. The public will feel duped. They will realize the industry isn’t competent nor ethical
The FACT is that if aerospace level simulation were used all of these problems would be resolved.
More details here —
Autonomous Levels 4 and 5 will never be reached without Simulation vs Public Shadow Driving for AI
Who will get to Autonomous Level 5 First and Why